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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd